Nearly four years into the ceasefire, Nepal's peace process is stuck. Constitution-writing has ground to a halt. There seems to be a real danger of democratic reversal and backsliding. The political stalemate has brought about a state of national paralysis. Everything is on hold, and we're all waiting to see what happens next. The economy is stagnant, the country is literally in darkness. Lawlessness and crime have got worse, journalists are self-censoring and corruption doesn't even make the news anymore. The republic is on autopilot.
Things are a mess, but no one expected this to be easy. Is four years enough to expect a country to go through such wrenching change, and in all the chaos hope to write a new constitution?
There are major disagreements. But why are we surprised? In fact the big surprise is that the whole process hasn't unraveled in the past four years. There is some uncertainty about what will happen after May 28, but it's not going to be the end of the world.
What is holding things up is a power-sharing deadlock within the leadership trinity. The Maoists won't let things move until they are in government and the other two parties are adamant about not letting them in. There is consensus on the need for a political consensus, but that is about it.
We are tantalisingly close to our goal. Once a political accommodation is agreed, a lot of other things will fall into place. The external factor is important. The regional powers are not fighting a proxy power struggle in Nepal. Other external actors (the bilaterals and the UN) have to be very clear on basic values like democracy, pluralism and non-violence. You can't ban the use of political violence in your own country and tolerate it in another. You can't be democratic and excuse totalitarian tendencies. When a party (whichever party) in a post-conflict situation is actively using violence, threats and intimidation it has to be made clear that it won't be tolerated. Often, there is an attempt to look the other way to "protect the process" or the international community's need for a success story.
In the midst of all this, the people's real needs are more basic: jobs, food, schools and hospitals, clean government, law and order. The real threat to peace is a stagnant economy, lack of jobs, development at a standstill, and the people's rising frustration with this. Just this should be warning enough to the political leadership that time is of the essence.
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Destination Unknown - FROM ISSUE #493 (12 MARCH 2010 - 18 MARCH 2010)
Never too late? - FROM ISSUE #493 (12 MARCH 2010 - 18 MARCH 2010)